3. Consider the data for Problem 2. a. Using the data from 2016 and 2017, determine initial values of the base level, trend, and seasonal factors for Winter's Method. b. Assume that the observed demand for the first quarter of 2018 was 18. Using a = 0.2, B = 0.15 and y = 0.1, update the estimates of the base level at the first quarter of 2018, the trend, and the seasonal factors. c. What are the forecasts made at the end of the first quarter of 2018 for the remaining three quarters of 2018?

Fig: 1