+ 5 Question C1 [5 marks] The data in Table 1 shows the annual profit made by the Excelsior Hotel over the past 6 years. This question asks you to make forecasts for 2024 using different methods. NOTE 1: Use values in the same form as they are given in the table; for example, Profit = 218 etc. You do not need Profit = 218000 etc NOTE 2: If you want to edit the table, you will need to copy and paste it to another sheet. Profit TABLE 1 Year Data Point (£000) Forecast (3 Point M.A) 2018 1 274 2019 2 258 2020 3 220 2021 4 263 250.667 2022 5 308 247 2023 6 299 263.667 2024 7 3 d.p. 3 d.p. 5 1) Use a 3 point moving average to forecast the profit for 2024 3 d.p. 7 B 9 2) Use a weighted moving average with weightings of 50% for the most recent value, 30% for the second most recent and 20% for the third most recent value to calculate a forecast for 2024 3) Using the data points as your x values, calculate the intercept of the trend line for profit. 3 4) Using the data points as your x values, calculate the gradient (slope) of the trend line for profit. 3 d.p. 5 5 5) Use the predicted trend line for profit to calculate a profit forecast for 2024. 3 d.p. 7/nQuestion C2 [2 marks] The staffing levels at the Excelsior Hotel are constant over the years (with no trend) but vary with the seasons. Table 2 shows the number of staff employed at the hotel each Quarter for the past 2 years. 1) Calculate the forecast for 2024 Quarter 3 (Q3) correct to 1 decimal place. 1 d.p. 2) Each year, the staff employed in the low season (that is, the season with fewest staff) are permanent staff who are employed for the whole year. Additional casual staff are employed on a temporary basis in the other quarters. How many additional casual staff are predicted to be needed in 2024 Q4? 1 d.p./nQuestion C4 [7 marks] Table 4 shows the quarterly visitor numbers to the resort, in which the Excelsior Hotel is located, over the past 3 years. It is not complete but some Quarter 1 (Q1) values for each year have been calculated for you. The predicted trend is given by the equation: Visitor Numbers = 21.433+0.854*Datapoint NOTE 1: Use values in the same form as they are given in the table; for example, Visitor Numbers = 26.1 etc. You do not need Visitor Numbers = 26100 etc NOTE 2: If you want to edit the table, you will need to copy and paste it to another sheet. 1) Calculate the predicted trend for 2024 Q2 2) Calculate the detrended value for 2022 Q3 3) Calculate the average seasonal variation for Q4 4) Calculate the forecast for 2023 Q1 5) Calculate the forecast error for 2023 Q1 6) Calculate the forecast for 2024 Q2 3 d.p. 3 d.p. 3 d.p. 3 d.p. 3 d.p. 3 d.p./n

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