MGT2221 & MGT2222 Operations Management; 2023-24 Individual Report Instructions (50%, 2,000 words) Read the 'North London Airport Hub' case study below. Write a 2,000 (±10%) word professional report that address

all the issues specified in the case study. Tables and figures developed using MS Excel software are essential part of your report to visualise data and support your arguments. The report contributes 50% towards your final grade. Submit your report via the 'Individual Report submission' Turnitin link that can be found in the Assessment & Feedback folder on the module page in myLearning For the purpose of this assessment, envisage that you have recently started a new job as a junior operations manager at a major airport. You are writing this report to your line manager to summarise your findings following detailed analysis of the data given to you. The report you produce must be presented as a professional report in terms of appearance and language. Your report should include cover page, table of content, introduction, conclusion and appropriate sub headings (don't use the questions from the case study below as sub-headings). Plan the structure and organisation of your report carefully. Clarity and focus are essential. You need to use few appropriate key references in your report to support your arguments (minimum 5 good quality references are expected) and reference them appropriate. Use Harvard method of referencing. Information about academic writing, referencing and plagiarism is available in the 'Assessment & Feedback' folder on the module page in myLearning and through Library page in UniHub. Case Study: North London Airport Hub Your line manager has presented you the passenger data from 2020-22 shown in Table 1. Currently the airport is forecasting the passenger numbers using 2-Month Moving Average method. Your line manager is concerned that this may not be the most appropriate and accurate method of forecasting for the company. She is proposing that the airport moves to 2-Month Weighted Moving Average method of forecasting with the weight of 0.7 for the most recent period and 0.3 for the older period. She is also interested in finding out which method of forecasting you would select for the company [N.B. You must select one of the forecasting methods covered in the module]. She wants you to analyse the available data (shown in Table 1) and produce a short report (2,000 words + 10% excluding figures, tables and references) that include relevant tables and figures to fully address the issues listed below. Your report needs to consider three different methods of forecasting; current model, model proposed by your line manager and a model you have selected. Your aim is to identify a forecasting method that is most appropriate for the North London Airport Hub. Include the following in your report: 1. Analyse the data given to you. How does the data behave? What patterns are present in the demand? How do you know? How is this relevant to selecting a forecasting model? Support your analysis with appropriate tables and figures. Page 1 of 5 MGT2221 & MGT2222 Operations Management; 2023-24 2. Generate the forecast for 2020-22 using the current model. Analyse the results. Is appropriate forecasting model being applied? Why/why not? Discuss. Support your analysis with appropriate formulas, tables and figures. 3. Generate the forecast for 2020-22 using the model propose by your line manager. Analyse the results. Is this appropriate forecasting model for the company? Why/why not? Discuss. Support your analysis with appropriate formulas, tables and figures. 4. What forecasting model would you use? Justify the model you have selected. Why do you think this is the best forecasting method for the company to use? Generate the forecast for 2020-22 using the model you have proposed. Analyse the results. Support your analysis with appropriate formulas, tables and figures. [N.B. You must select one of the forecasting methods covered in the module] 5. Determine the forecast error for the current model, the model proposed by your line manager and the model you selected. Explain and justify the method you have used to calculate the forecast error. Analyse the results and compare the three forecasting methods. What are your key observations? How could you use this information when selecting the method of forecasting? Support your analysis with appropriate formulas and tables/figures. 6. Provide two key recommendations for the company, i.e. what action should they take and why. You must deliver your recommendations from the analysis you have conducted in this report. Justify your recommendations. 7. Discuss the role of forecasting and the implications of forecasting accuracy to operations of the airport. Why is forecasting important and how might passenger forecast be used by the airport? Consider some of the operational issues covered in this module. 8. Cover page, table of content, introduction, conclusions and list of references. Table 1: Passenger number in North London Airport Hub 2020-22 Year Month 2020 January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 July 2020 August 2020 September 2020 October 2020 November 2020 December Passengers Year Month 13,441,718 2021 January 11,942,221 2021 February 14,670,996 2021 March 14,286,844 2021 April 14,537,314 2021 May 15,906,101 2021 June 17,362,586 2021 July 16,969,528 2021 August 14,010,920 2021 September 13,599,030 2021 October 12,919,746 2021 November 14,289,105 2021 December Passengers Year Month 13,970,077 2022 January 12,230,963 2022 February 15,447,435 2022 March 14,507,038 2022 April 15,516,063 2022 May 16,487,702 2022 June 17,954,910 2022 July 17,786,357 2022 August 14,408,817 2022 September 14,374,254 2022 October 13,258,104 2022 November 15,182,616 2022 December Passengers 14,470,077 12,730,963 15,947,435 15,007,038 16,016,063 16,987,702 18,454,910 18,286,357 14,908,817 14,874,254 13,758,104 15,682,616 Page 2 of 5 Marking Criteria 7-10 points (70-100%) Relevant content. presentation, Professional report with excellent structure and language. Quality of presentation, language, figures. (10 points) Quality and quantity of sources used. Method of referencing. (10 points) Criterion Report content, Analysis of the original data. (10 points) Analysis of the current forecasting model. (10 points) structure, sub- headings, figures. Minimum five relevant high-quality sources used. Referencing is correct. In-text citations are used effectively to support arguments. Excellent analysis of the data. Implications to the selection of appropriate forecasting method are well considered. Appropriate and high- quality figures and tables used to support analysis. Current forecasting model applied correctly. Excellent analysis and discussion of the results. Exceptional figures and tables used to support analysis. 6-6.9 points (60-69%) Relevant content. Good presentation, language, structure, sub- headings, figures. Quality and quantity of sources used is good. Referencing is correct. In-text citations are used appropriately to support arguments. Data analysis and discussion are good. Figures and tables are appropriate. Current forecasting model applied correctly. Analysis and discussion of results are good. Figures and tables are appropriate. MGT2221 & MGT2222 Operations Management; 2023-24 5-5.9 points (50-59%) Relevant content. | Satisfactory presentation, language, structure, sub- headings, figures. Quality and quantity of sources used is satisfactory. Referencing include some lapses. In-text citations are used appropriately. Data analysis and discussion are satisfactory. Figures and tables are acceptable Current forecasting model applied mostly correctly. Analysis and discussion of results are satisfactory. Figures and tables are acceptable. 4-4.9 points (40-49%) Relevant content. Adequate presentation, | language, structure, sub-headings, figures. Quality and quantity of sources used is adequate. Referencing is inconsistent. Only few in-text citations included. Data analysis and discussion are adequate but limited. Figures and tables are acceptable Current forecasting model applied at least partly correctly. Analysis and discussion of results are adequate but limited. Figures and tables are acceptable. 0-3.9 points (0-39%) Content mostly irrelevant or incomplete. No appropriate sources used. Analysis of the data is inadequate. Application and analysis of the current forecasting model is inadequate. Page 3 of 5 Analysis of the line manager's forecasting model. (10 points) Analysis of your chosen forecasting model. (10 points) Application and analysis of Forecasting error. (10 points) Two recommendations. (10 points) Manager's forecasting model applied correctly. Excellent analysis and discussion of the results. Exceptional figures and tables used to support analysis. Highly suitable forecasting model suggested and well justified. Proposed forecasting model applied correctly. Excellent analysis and discussion of the results. Exceptional figures and tables used to support analysis. Appropriate forecasting error measures selected, justified, illustrated and applied accurately to all three forecasting methods. Excellent comparison of methods and discussion of results. Two distinct, relevant and well justified recommendations delivered from the analysis. Manager's forecasting model applied correctly. Analysis and discussion of results is good. Figures and tables are appropriate. Suitable forecasting model proposed. Justification, application, analysis and discussion are appropriate. Figures and tables are good. Forecasting error measures applied accurately to all three forecasting methods. Good justification, comparison and discussion of results. Two relevant recommendations delivered from the analysis. Justification is limited. MGT2221 & MGT2222 Operations Management; 2023-24 Manager's forecasting model applied at least partly correctly. Analysis and discussion of results is adequate but limited. Figures and tables are acceptable. Application and analysis of the manager's forecasting model is inadequate. Manager's forecasting model applied mostly correctly. Analysis and discussion of results is satisfactory. Figures and tables are acceptable. Acceptable forecasting model proposed. Justification, application, analysis and discussion are satisfactory. Figures and tables are generally suitable. Forecasting error measures applied to most of the selected forecasting methods. Satisfactory justification, comparison and discussion of results. Application and discussion include some lapses. Two relevant/generic recommendations. Link to analysis is limited. Weak justification. Proposed forecasting model is not appropriate but application is good and analysis is adequate. Good tables and figures. Application of forecasting error measures to selected forecasting methods is vague and incomplete. Adequate justification, comparison and discussion of results. One/two generic recommendations. Link to analysis is limited. Weak justification. Proposed forecasting model is not appropriate and analysis is inadequate. Forecasting error measures not applied. Discussion of the results is inadequate. No relevant recommendations. Page 4 of 5 Criterion Discussion on forecasting and forecasting accuracy in airport operations. (20 points) 14-20 points (70-100%) Thorough and critical analysis of the role of forecasting and the implications of forecasting accuracy to operations of the airport. Excellent breadth and depth of knowledge. 12-13.9 points (60-69%) Good analysis of the role of forecasting and the implications of forecasting accuracy to operations of the airport. MGT2221 & MGT2222 Operations Management; 2023-24 0-7.9 points (0-39%) Discussion is mostly irrelevant or inaccurate. 10-11.9 points (50-59%) Satisfactory analysis of the role of forecasting and the implications of forecasting accuracy to operations of the airport. 8-9.9 points (40-49%) Adequate generic discussion on the role of forecasting in airport operations. Discussion lacks breadth and depth of knowledge. Page 5 of 5