Question A1 [6 marks] The table shows data about the production of Good or Defective items from suppliers in 3 towns. Supplier: Good Defective Total An item is chosen at random. Aylesbury Bicester Chester Total 367 134 259 760 24 20 21 65 391 154 280 825 1) What is the probability that an item is Defective? 2) What is the probability that an item is NOT from Chester? 3) What is the probability that an item is from Aylesbury and is Good? 4) What is the probability that an item is from Chester or is Defective or both? 5) Given that an item is Defective, what is the probability that it is from Bicester? 6) If an item is known to be from Aylesbury, what is the probability that it is Good? Question A2 [4 marks] The probability that shop A is still trading at the end of June is 0.75. Independently, the probability that shop B is still trading at the end of June is 0.88. Calculate the probability that, at the end of June, 1) both shops are still trading 2) shop A is no longer trading but shop B is still trading 3) both shops are no longer trading 4) exactly one shop is still trading. to 4dp to 4dp to 4dp to 4dp to 4dp to 4dp to 4dp to 4dp to 4dp to 4dp/nQuestion A3 [1 mark] A new product is expected to generate the following profits/losses depending on the level of demand. Level of demand High Medium Low Profit/Loss Probability £83 000 profit 0.23 £30 000 profit 0.35 £43 000 loss 0.42 What is the expected profit or loss from the new product? Note: profit is a positive value and loss is a negative value. Question A4 [3 marks] The probability that a project is completed on time (includes early) is 0.82 for project A and 0.9 for project B. In each case the bonus for completing on time is £5000. The lateness penalties (i.e. losses) are £18000 for project A and £20 000 for project B. 1) Calculate the probability that project A is late. 2) Calculate the expected monetary value (EMV) for project A. 3) What will the lateness penalty in B have to be changed to so that the expected monetary value for project B is £2750? to nearest £ to nearest £

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