Search for question
Question

X Evaluation Criteria 1. Ability to create dynamic excel functions and formulas 2. Ability to create forecasts given limited information 3. Ability to understand and manipulate cohort curves 4. The final model will be evaluated on accuracy, creativity, auditability, formatting and adaptability Prompt 1. Given the below projected delivery forecast by month, please determine an appropriate amount of Dashers we would need to acquire each month to bring the average deliveries per Dasher down to 50.0x by December 2019 Note: You will need to forecast out expected retention curves given historical data 2. Given the forecasted increase in cost per acquired Dasher, how much should we be willing to pay to increase Dasher retention by 10% (which would decrease overall acquisition in 2019)? 3. What are some initiatives you would recommend to increase Dasher retention? Note: Feel free to use the below data to size your initiatives or just write out a qualitative response/nX Deliveries Acquired Dashers Retained Dashers Active Dashers Delivs per Dasher Average Deliveries per Hour Cost per Acquired Dasher Total Dasher Acquisition Costs 52,000 1/1/2018 2/1/2018 3/1/2018 4/1/2018 5/1/2018 6/1/2018 7/1/2018 8/1/2018 9/1/2018 10/1/2018 11/1/2018 12/1/2018 1/1/2019 2/1/2019 3/1/2019 4/1/2019 5/1/2019 6/1/2019 7/1/2019 8/1/2019 10,986,637 10,973,217 12,411,463 13,641,944 14,942,396 16,313,571 17,758,613 19,279,155 20,877,955 22,556,747 24,316,051 26,157,837 27,465,729 28,839,015 30,280,966 31,795,014 33,384,765 35,054,003 36,806,703 38,647,038 57,000 53,000 235,769 288,769 302,719 317,255 332,053 347,097 362,421 378,023 56,000 262,255 276,053 290,097 304,421 319,023 222,666 274,666 40.0x 3.0x 38.0x 3.1x 54,000 248,719 41.0x 3.1x 55,000 43.0x 3.2x 45.0x Actual 3.2x 47.0x 3.3x 58,000 49.0x 3.3x 59,000 51.0x 3.4x 60,000 333,924 393,924 53.0x 3.4x 61,000 349,123 410,123 55.0x 3.5x 62,000 364,597 426,597 57.0x 3.5x 63,000 380,353 443,353 59.0x 3.6x $135.0 $145.0 $155.0 $165.0 $175.0 $185.0 $75.0 $85.0 $95.0 $105.0 $115.0 $125.0 $3,900,000 $4,505,000 $5,130,000 $5,775,000 $6,440,000 $7,125,000 $7,830,000 $8,555,000 $9,300,000 $10,065,000 $10,850,000 $11,655,000 - 3.6x 3.7x $195.0 $205.0 3.7x $215.0 3.8x $225.0 3.8x Forecast $235.0 3.9x $245.0 A 3.9x $255.0 4.0x $265.0/nX Example Cohort Curves (Raw Data on Separate Sheet) Retention Curves Cohort Date 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 Retained Dashers Cohort Date 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 Reference Date Cohort Date 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 Period (N + X) N = 0 100.0% 100.0% Perlod (N + X) N=0 40,000 52,000 1 80.0% 79.8% 1 32,000 41,517 2 60.0% 60.2% 1 2 24,000 31,295 3 55.0% 55.3% 2 3 22,000 28,739 4 50.0% 50.4% 4 20,000 26,184 5 45.0% 45.4% 4 5 18,000 23,628 Period (N + X) 3 N = 0 1/1/2017 2/1/2017 3/1/2017 4/1/2017 5/1/2017 6/1/2017 7/1/2017 1/1/2018 2/1/2018 3/1/2018 4/1/2018 5/1/2018 6/1/2018 7/1/2018 6 40.0% 40.5% 5 6 16,000 21,073 6 7 35.0% 35.6% 7 14,000 18,518 7 8 30.0% 30.7% 8 12,000 15,962 8 8/1/2017 9/1/2017 8/1/2018 9/1/2018 9 25.0% 25.8% 9 10,000 13,407 10 20.0% 20.9% 9 10 8,000 10,851 11 19.9% 20.8% 10 11 7,960 10,800 12 19.8% 11 12 7,920 13 19.7% 13 7,880 14 19.6% 14 7,840 15 19.5% 15 7,800 15 16 19.4% 16 7,760 17 19.3% 17 7,720 18 19.2% -- 18 7,680 13 14 16 17 18 19 12 10/1/2017 11/1/2017 12/1/2017 1/1/2018 2/1/2018 3/1/2018 4/1/2018 5/1/2018 6/1/2018 7/1/2018 8/1/2018 10/1/2018 11/1/2018 12/1/2018 1/1/2019 2/1/2019 3/1/2019 4/1/2019 5/1/2019 6/1/2019 7/1/2019 8/1/2019 19 19.1% 19 7,640 --

Fig: 1

Fig: 2

Fig: 3