Series (WS) next year. Call this probability p. Now assess the follow-
ing probabilities: P(Win WS | Win Pennant) and P(Win Pennant). Use
these to calculate q = P(Win WS) = P(Win WSI Win Pennant) P(Win
Pennant)- P(Win WS and Win Pennant). (To play in the World
Series, the team must first win the pennant.)
a. Docs pq? Which of the two assessments are you more confident
about? Would you adjust your assessments to make pq? Why or
why not?
b. If you do not like the Mets, do this problem for your favorite
major league baseball team.
Fig: 1