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8.17. Assess the probability that the New York Mets will win the World

Series (WS) next year. Call this probability p. Now assess the follow-

ing probabilities: P(Win WS | Win Pennant) and P(Win Pennant). Use

these to calculate q = P(Win WS) = P(Win WSI Win Pennant) P(Win

Pennant)- P(Win WS and Win Pennant). (To play in the World

Series, the team must first win the pennant.)

a. Docs pq? Which of the two assessments are you more confident

about? Would you adjust your assessments to make pq? Why or

why not?

b. If you do not like the Mets, do this problem for your favorite

major league baseball team.

Fig: 1