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Description:

Demand for 40W 12V monocrystalline solar panels at SolarPower from its Australian

and the New Zealand markets for the last 12 months are as follows:

Quantitative Questions:

a) Estimate demand for the next three using a 3-month moving average, simple

exponential smoothing with = 0.1, and Holt's model to estimate the demand

with a = 0.1 and 3= 0.2. (6 marks)

b) Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, bias, and TS (i.e., the KPIs) in each case. Which of

the three methods is better? Why? (3 marks)

c) What should the values of aand in the Holt's model be to minimise the MAD?

(1 mark)

Qualitative Question:

d) Conduct your own research and find out what the solar panel manufacturing

industry usually does in forecasting demand. You may wish to discuss the topic

based on product value, product volume, and product flow as different product

characteristics may require different methods to forecast the demand

accurately. Give examples to support your arguments. (5 marks).