Description:
Demand for 40W 12V monocrystalline solar panels at SolarPower from its Australian
and the New Zealand markets for the last 12 months are as follows:
Quantitative Questions:
a) Estimate demand for the next three using a 3-month moving average, simple
exponential smoothing with = 0.1, and Holt's model to estimate the demand
with a = 0.1 and 3= 0.2. (6 marks)
b) Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, bias, and TS (i.e., the KPIs) in each case. Which of
the three methods is better? Why? (3 marks)
c) What should the values of aand in the Holt's model be to minimise the MAD?
(1 mark)
Qualitative Question:
d) Conduct your own research and find out what the solar panel manufacturing
industry usually does in forecasting demand. You may wish to discuss the topic
based on product value, product volume, and product flow as different product
characteristics may require different methods to forecast the demand
accurately. Give examples to support your arguments. (5 marks).