1. (10 pts) As a politician you can end your campaign for election in City A or B. You estimate that a speech in A will gain you either 2000 votes or, if local students protest, 4000 more than your opponent. However, if your opponent also comes to A you will have to cancel the speech and debate, in which case you will get 1000 votes less than your opponent. Your manager estimates that the probability of your opponent showing up is 0.5. The probability that the students will protest is 0.3. Alternatively, you can go to B, where there are no students and your opponent has already been, where you may either gain 2000 votes (probability 0.3) or 600 votes (probability 0.7). (a) Which city would you go to if you are trying to maximize your votes? (b) Which city would you go if current polls show you are losing by 800 votes?

Fig: 1