A Sketch Planning exercise to estimate demand for a commuter bus service. Background What is Sketch Planning? It is a high-level approach to develop transportation planning estimates. Sketch-Planning Tools. Sketch-planning methodologies and tools produce general order-of-magnitude estimates of travel demand and traffic operations in response to transportation improvements. They allow for the evaluation of specific projects or alternatives without conducting an in-depth engineering analysis. Sketch-planning tools perform some or all of the functions of other analytical tools using simplified techniques and highly aggregate data. -Meyer, Michael D.. Transportation Planning Handbook, John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, 2016. ProQuest Ebook Central, While something like a travel demand model relies on estimating trips, distributing and assigning to a network, Sketch Planning may rely on a set of reasonable estimates based on realistic assumptions. For example, if you were to try and estimate the demand for a bus service between two communities, you might start by looking at data you have access to, such as Journey to Work data that shows how many people are commuting. You may try and find estimates of modal split, like what percentage of people use a bus when it is available, or you could even use a binary logit model like out of NCHRP 365 or 716 based on travel times (I can provide both references). You may also do a sensitivity analysis that shows a range of realistic values if such numbers are not available. Scope Using the Statistics Canada Journey to Work Data (https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=9810045901), you will need to review commuting patterns for a city (choose from the list in Table 1 below) and choose one set of origin/destination pairs among the top 10 origin/destination pairs that you think has potential for a commuter bus service where one does not exist. Note any communities that may already served by regional transit service (e.g. Moncton, Dieppe, Riverview is the only one in NB) or commuter bus services (e.g. COMEX in Saint John) and choose a different community not served by these services. This will be formatted as a technical lab report, including appropriate introduction, background, ,methodology, analysis, conclusion and recommendation. 1. For your city, identify the top 10 communities that have your city as the destination and the top 10 communities where your city is the origin (do not include the city itself) a. Choose one origin/destination pair (the city and commuter census subdivision) to evaluate as a potential commuter bus service route and justify that choice. It does NOT have to be the busiest route, I would like you to pick one that is relevant or interesting to you. 2. Create a demographic and socio-economic profile of study area, including the city commuter census subdivision. a. Population in 2021, 2016 and population change (if possible) b. Population Density C. Median Age 3. Include a map that clearly identifies the communities. You should also describe any other community characteristics that may influence transportation use: d. Geographic characteristics e. Mode choice (Statistics Canada Journey to Work Commuter profiles, CHASS) i. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=9810046201 f. Existing services in the area, existing transportation & road connections. g. Travel distances between each community. 4. Prepare an analysis of the commuting data, including any additional information, assumptions, equations, etc, that you may draw from the ITE Planning Handbook, NCHRP 716, and any other technical resource you might find to estimate potential ridership and present your estimates. Identify any limitations or caveats regarding your estimates. Conclusions and Recommendations Prepare a set of conclusions and recommendations for next steps based on your analysis, including whether a commuter bus service may make sense or whether there may be other options to consider. Report of 750-1000 words. This will be evaluated according to the lab rubric, with top marks going to innovative and insightful approaches that seek to meaningfully answer the question. Other instructions 1. I will not answer any questions about how to do the test/report or how to work the Statistics Canada website- you are on your own to figure out how to interpret the requirements of this exercise. State any assumptions you need to make. Table 1: Destination Cities Destination Cities Moncton (City) 1307022 and Moncton CMA Dieppe (City & Moncton CMA) Saint John (City & CMA) Edmundston (City & CA) Fredericton (City & CA) Miramichi (City & CA) Campbellton (City & CA) Bathurst (City & CA)/n Instructions Need report in 1000 words excluding the resources the format of the report is Introduction, Background, Mathadology, Analysis and conclusion and recommendation. this project is about A Sketch Planning exercise to estimate demand for a commuter bus service. all the details are attached. City of Saint John Has been selected among the lists. its advisable to put me in loop during the preparation of report, and not wait till the report is completed, the data will be extracted from Statistics Canada, links and instructions are provided how to do that, after getting the data, it needs to be imported into ARC GIS MAP Software. expect affair amount of excel work to be done in preparation to be imported in the GIS Map. you must state any assumption you use in the report. Length of the report is 1000 words excluding resources. All GIS map and Excel calculation must be inserted in the report. Student note: for this project I selected Saint john, New Brunswick for this project I have completed partial of the work which include part 2 in the requirement, I have attached the ARC GIS Themaic Map so it can be attached along with the report. I have done some part - the first 2, which include the Median Age, Population 2021, 2016, and the pop change, Density as well I also Gathered important information from Static canada only part 2 is completed, 1, 3, and 4 are not completed and the report obviously, so need to complete these calculation for modal split is very important this link I gathered from static Canada, just to ease the work(tutor must need to check these links) : https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action? pid=9810050401&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.3686&pickMembers %5B1%5D=2.1 https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/details/ page.cfm?Lang=E&SearchText=saint %20john&DGUIDlist=2021A00051301006,2021S0503310,2013A000413009 &GENDERlist=1&STATISTIClist=1,4&HEADERlist=49,51,50,48,52 https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/details/ Page.cfm? Lang=E&SearchText=millidgeville&DGUIDlist=2021A00051301006,2013A0 00413009,2021A00051301006&GENDERlist=1&STATISTIClist=1,4&HEAD ERlist=49,51,50,48,52,6 Travel Demand Forecasting: Parameters and Techniques this a supporting documents that is required to preform the Modal Split, is also attached. just look into the table of content, section Modal Split and you will find everything you need to calculate modal split, such Coefficient, anything required to preform the Unitility Function can be found there, such as Coefficient andso on. I beileve its on page 53 (4.7 Mode Choice). now for the travel time between the dessimnation areas can be done using googole, - example has been attached – you can select any place inside the disimination areas between the the the two, to calculate the Origion and Distination of one Pair. and the copy of the Google map for all transit type must be included in the report, its either by appendics or in the body of the report if they will discus that findings which they will also part of the resources should be the supporting documents any assumption is made must be documents very well in the report. /n Instructions Need report in 1000 words excluding the resources the format of the report is Introduction, Background, Mathadology, Analysis and conclusion and recommendation. this project is about A Sketch Planning exercise to estimate demand for a commuter bus service. all the details are attached. City of Saint John Has been selected among the lists. its advisable to put me in loop during the preparation of report, and not wait till the report is completed, the data will be extracted from Statistics Canada, links and instructions are provided how to do that, after getting the data, it needs to be imported into ARC GIS MAP Software. expect affair amount of excel work to be done in preparation to be imported in the GIS Map. you must state any assumption you use in the report. Length of the report is 1000 words excluding resources. All GIS map and Excel calculation must be inserted in the report. Student note: for this project I selected Saint john, New Brunswick for this project I have completed partial of the work which include part 2 in the requirement, I have attached the ARC GIS Themaic Map so it can be attached along with the report. I have done some part - the first 2, which include the Median Age, Population 2021, 2016, and the pop change, Density as well I also Gathered important information from Static canada only part 2 is completed, 1, 3, and 4 are not completed and the report obviously, so need to complete these calculation for modal split is very important this link I gathered from static Canada, just to ease the work(tutor must need to check these links) : https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action? pid=9810050401&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.3686&pickMembers %5B1%5D=2.1 https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/details/ page.cfm?Lang=E&SearchText=saint %20john&DGUIDlist=2021A00051301006,2021S0503310,2013A000413009 &GENDERlist=1&STATISTIClist=1,4&HEADERlist=49,51,50,48,52 https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/details/ Page.cfm? Lang=E&SearchText=millidgeville&DGUIDlist=2021A00051301006,2013A0 00413009,2021A00051301006&GENDERlist=1&STATISTIClist=1,4&HEAD ERlist=49,51,50,48,52,6 Travel Demand Forecasting: Parameters and Techniques this a supporting documents that is required to preform the Modal Split, is also attached. just look into the table of content, section Modal Split and you will find everything you need to calculate modal split, such Coefficient, anything required to preform the Unitility Function can be found there, such as Coefficient andso on. I beileve its on page 53 (4.7 Mode Choice). now for the travel time between the dessimnation areas can be done using googole, - example has been attached – you can select any place inside the disimination areas between the the the two, to calculate the Origion and Distination of one Pair. and the copy of the Google map for all transit type must be included in the report, its either by appendics or in the body of the report if they will discus that findings which they will also part of the resources should be the supporting documents any assumption is made must be documents very well in the report.