Create a time series model (with level, linear trend, and seasonal components) for purposes of forecasting daily demand at Penguin for April 9-27, including a margin of uncertainty for each day’s forecast. Note, assume that forecast errors are normally distributed.

Calculate:

• Deseasonalization (Deseas)

• D-Bar

• S-Bar

• Seasonal (Seas) Factor

• Forecast

• Absolute Error

• Slope

• Intercept

• Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

• Margin of Uncertainty

• Upper and Lower Forecasts per day