• Rosling discusses in his book ten reasons instincts that explain why we misinterpret/misunderstand information about the world. There is a summary at the end of the book in pictorial form(on page256). Select 5 of these 10 topics (something from the beginning, the middle, and the end should be included in the 5). Explain first what Rosling means with a particular instinct(e.g., The Straight Line Instinct) and why this is a challenge. Illustrate with examples, preferably from your own experiences. Discuss then how you can control these instincts (or tendencies to misunderstand/misinterpret information). End your text with reflections on whatever intrigued you most or you found most important for you when you read the book.

DISCUSSION OF FIVE INSTINCTS THAT DISTORTS OUR WORLDVIEW From the book Factfulness – Ten reasons we’re wrong about the world The Gap Instinct The gap instinct is about viewing the world into two different clusters – rich vs. poor or developing vs. developed. We often tend to forget that this binary view of the world is often outdated. The author emphasizes this point by citing the example of children mortality before the age of five years for all the countries. The child mortality was considered a dipstick measure for development and was shown to be almost in the same range for all the countries. Therefore, it is suggested that the cluster ‘developing’ and ‘developed’ is outdated and should no longer be referred to. Still almost of all of us and even the institutions are referring to the same clusters. This is the gap instinct that needs to be rectified. As per the author, we have a generic tendency to dichotomize. We love to divide the world into two cluster of rich and poor because it is intuitive. It is also helpful in explaining many conflicts which, otherwise, will be difficult to explain. Added to this is the storytelling by the media and the journalists. They present their stories to further emphasize this division and explain every conflict and disbalance through the lens of this division. This is no predominant that it is almost impossible for us to avoid this delusion. This is why this is so challenging to understand that there is no such binary gap. The examples can be cited from the perception of access to resources for the poor and rich countries. Consider the example of access to the internet. A common perception is that the rich countries enjoy better internet service and the poor countries just follow their footprints after few years. But the reality is that most of the countries enjoy equally better internet services throughout the globe and the affordability is also comparable. This is a direct example of the binary division of the world based on the access to resources. According to the author, there are three aspects that need to be emphasized in order to control on the gap instinct. First, by avoiding the comparison of averages. We must remember that when we compare only averages, we tend to miss out the overlapping spreads of the observations where the countries can be comparable to each other. More importantly, the existence of these spreads can be significant and should not be ignored. Second, there is a tendency to highlight the extremes ignoring the general observation. This is another trap to induce the gap instinct. We should ignore the extreme observation or outliers to conclude our analysis. Finally, we need to avoid the view from the top behavior. The author has divided the population into four income groups. When a person in level four is looking at the people of the others, it seems that all others are equally deprived but that is not true. So, we need to stop looking down from all the top because it will distort the true picture or the reality. According to me the gap instinct can be controlled firstly by not thinking in extremes, binary comes in action when there are two extremes. Secondly Media needs to have positive outlook on the news they are telecasting as the news they are telecasting is seen or heard by people of every age group and it shape their minds. The negativity instinct The negativity instinct is about the feeling or perception that the world is getting worse day by day and the past was always better and what is happening now is just a mere deterioration of prosperity, goodwill, and values on the whole. We have a general tendency to romanticize on our past memories. Past always seems better than the present. Also, what is negative (there are many negative issues in today’s world that the author had cited) seems too prominent compared to the improvement that has happened over the years. This is called the negativity instinct. As per the author’s opinion, there are three basic reasons for this negativity instinct. First, we tend to forget out memory. We only remember the sweet parts and forget the inconvenience and painful parts. However, when the present is concerned, we tend to observe the problems more than the benefits or improvements. Such sharp contrast of our mind increases this negativity instinct. Second, the selective reporting of media and activities is also responsible for generating a negative worldview in the present time. Finally, we tend to avoid saying it better when some bad things are still observed. This means although we can see that the lives of us have improved in today’s world, we don’t acknowledge the same because not everything is good and unless everything is good as expected, how can we say that improvements are happening! A practical example can be cited in terms of the use of air conditioners in home and offices. While everybody knows that the use of air conditioners has made our lives easy and productive, people tend to highlight their past memories of how they didn’t even need an air-conditioner to remain productive, how the breeze of the empty ground and river-side locality was enough. We will only highlight the greenhouse gas impacts of the air conditioners and will not mention the productivity improvement and convenience it had taken in our lives. This is negativity instinct. Consider another example of the recent time – the coronavirus outbreak. It was common for the media and the activists to report the deaths and infections every day. However, very few media were focused on the outcome of the lab research for the vaccine. Still, we have seen that the vaccine came to us in a record time. Perhaps this was the lowest possible lead time the mankind took to develop and deliver a vaccine. This was a tremendous positive aspect for the world and humanity. But we focused more on the negative impact than the positive aspects. The author has offered three solutions to control negativity instinct. First, he asks us to treat both positive and negative aspects of the world with equal care and to accept that both bad and good things are occurring simultaneously. To him, it is useful to persuade the thoughts of good and bad at the same time in order to get rid of this negativity instinct. Second, if we constantly expect to receive bad news, it also helps reducing negativity instinct. We need to understand that due to the constant reporting of the media and activists, it is more probable to receive a negative news in contrast to receiving good news of equal intensity. So, receiving bad news constantly does not necessarily mean that there is no good news at all. It is just that that good news is not finding us with the same probability of bad news. According to me the Negativity instinct can be controlled Firstly by understanding that positive and negative both are equally important as if negative won’t exist how will one believe in positive. Secondly Humans need to understand that if there is no good news then it doesn’t mean life is all negative, one should consider life as normal too. Thirdly, if things are going wrong direction, one should know how to let it back in right direction. The generalization instinct Categorizing and generalizing people and system are the sources of generalization instinct. Categorizing and generalizing themselves are not problematic because they are the sources using which we analyze the entire world. Without them, every entity will become one of its kind. So, generalization is important. But the problem occurs when we generalize incorrectly. Incorrect generalization can make us assume everything in one category is similar. Moreover, it can drive us to conclusions about a whole category based on a few unusual examples. These are not stereotypes. Stereotypes happen only when people become aware of incorrect generalization. Wrong generalizations are more problematic because they act as mind-blockers when people are unaware of it. Generalizing is a challenge to everyone because it cannot be avoided. It is the basic way we understand the world. Without categories or classes, every person or object will stand alone as one its kind and understanding or decision-making will be too complex if not impossible. Added to this is again the involvement of media and activists. Misleading generalization and stereotypes are commonly used to communicate quickly. This becomes the source of the strong generalization instinct. An example can be cited in terms of how the people on the rich countries think about the ‘others’ as perceived by their gap instinct. The perception of the gap is the gap instinct itself but the perception about the lives of the ‘others’ is the generalization instinct. For example, it is possible that people at income level four may think that all others i.e., people in level one, two, or three do not access to critical resources such as vaccine due to this generalization instinct. The method to control the generalization instinct is to use better category. As per the author, the best category to be used is again the income level – the author has created four income level categories and argues that the entire population can fit into one of these four. Another method is to start questioning the categories. This will include searching differences within the group and similarities across the groups. Having a check on the majority proportion is also important. The majority is just more than 50 percent. But the behavior of just 51 percent may not signify the group behavior. Similarly, the exceptions are also to be considered. The exceptions can be too prominent and can distort the generalization. The method to control the generalization instinct is using those generalizations in a good way as generalizing is not supposed to make others uncomfortable for example there is different category for differently abled people, sometimes people look down on them and that is not good. Secondly by not thinking that if certain thing is generalized that means it will be good anyhow as it’s a possibility that majority of people are going wrong way. The blame instinct The blame instinct is about trying to find a person or system responsible for an adverse situation. We tend to think that a person or system is responsible and intentionally corrupted the system causing distress. The blame instinct details our ability to look into actual cause or facts responsible for the problem. Rather, we tend to believe that individuals or groups have the power to influence the outcome and they are exercising that power intentionally. The blame instinct is a challenge because at times, it becomes too convenient to find a group or person and assign a problem to them compared to actual fact-finding and resolution of the problem. Although the actual problem is never solved, we find ourselves relieved that someone else seems to be accountable in this situation. At the same time, blaming another person or group is easy and do not need any special skill. We just need to identify an entity such as the government, a journalist, a politician. An example of blame instinct is to blame the government for all kind of problems that we face in a society. Many problems are related and can be attributed to the government. But even if the government is responsible in some case, simply assigning the problem to the government does not solve the problem. If the problem is analyzed using facts and data, then actual underlying root cause can be understood. Then people and groups can act upon these problems to reduce their impact or eliminate them. The key to control the blame instinct according to me Blaming is basically shifting one’s guilt to another person, so one should not blame other and make others understand if something is wrong. Secondly, If the problem is of national level then one should change themselves and then expect people to change. The urgency instinct The urgency instinct is related to the tendency to act quickly to every situation without analyzing the entirety of the situation when in most cases, such urgency is not required. Such urgency may be required once in a while in fatal situations where making quick decision is crucial for the survival. But this is absolutely unrewarding for most of the situations. Still, this instinct is predominant since it is triggered by most of the advertisements which lets us believe that either we make appropriate choice right at this moment or the opportunity is lost forever. It is a challenge because it is deep-routed inside us due to out ancestors. Our ancestors have survived not by making informed decision most of the times but by making quick decision with incomplete information. But the world has changed and survival is not a primary goal of today’s decision-making. But still, we carry the traits of out ancestors and urgency instinct is one of them. This is again triggered by the advertisers and activists’ communication which repeatedly tells us to make a decision at the present moment or otherwise, the opportunity will be lost. Fear of missing out becomes another super ingredient for this urgency instinct. When it comes to future risks, people are often pretty much slothful. The urgency instinct does not work for future risks which are uncertain. The activists and advertisers somehow make us believe that the uncertain risk of a distant future is a sure shot risk of today. This triggers the urgency instinct and we tend to make drastic decisions without analyzing the entire situation. The examples are very common in terms of pricing. The advertisers will provide a discounted price to product and services and promote that the present price will never come back. The customers will most certainly not compare the price with the value of the product and service and will buy it. This is the influence of urgency instinct. The entire focus will be on the discounted price and how much it is less from the actual price. Most certainly, after the cut-off date is over, we will find the discounted price has not really or significantly increased to the ‘original’ price. The way to control the urgency instinct is asking for more time. Almost, all the time, more time is available. So, ask for it from the concerned party. We need not assume that this is a do or die situation and the opposite party will not agree to extended deadline. On the contrary, is most cases, it will agree. So, we should use the additional time to analyze the situation. Then we should think about acting. Another important aspect is the data. If something is important and urgent, it should always be backed up by data. So, we should always ask for data to analyze and confirm. Furthermore, we should insist on exploring more vivid possibilities of future prediction. The future prediction should come out with several possibilities each associated with a certain probability. Forecasting just one or two fortune-teller prediction is too dangerous and they almost all the time triggers the urgency instinct. Finally, instead of making drastic changes, we need to inculcate a step-by-step approach. We should evaluate the outcome of every step. In this way the actions become less dramatic but more effective. Reflection The book is an eye-opener. In this book the author describes ten instincts which prevents us to have clear, balanced, and unbiased worldview. The book is a result of enormous research work. The author proves his point in every instance using data and graphs. The graphs are usually mind-blowing (e.g., the bubble chart consisting the number of babies per women is really an eye-opener). One of the most intriguing aspects of this book is that author substantiates every type of instinct with his own personal experience either from family or professional background. Illustrations are there in almost every part of this book but the main beauty lies with the author’s ability to listen, discuss and learn from other people everywhere. Then people’s experience becomes his own experience and he tries to learn of every bit of such experiences. To me, the most intriguing is the gap instinct itself. We tend to create the division of ‘we’ vs. ‘us’ every time even without thinking while in most of the cases, such division is non-existent. Sometimes it is hard to believe that there is no such gap. But then the author substantiates everything with data and facts.

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• Rosling discusses in his book ten reasons instincts that explain why we misinterpret/misunderstand information about the world. There is a summary at the end of the book in pictorial form(on page256). Select 5 of these 10 topics (something from the beginning, the middle, and the end should be included in the 5). Expl