FOUR FORECASTS FOR 2013 ARE IN PP NOTES 41,333 2010 2011 2 09 = € 51,000 2012 3 Regression-based forecast V = 0.9897 a = 41,333 b = 4,000 Y = 41,333 +4000t, so C -Y(4)= 41,333+ 4000 (4) = 57,333 هنا Forecast using three Moving- average approaches EWMA (.6) ←MA (3) 2013 4 → t 2014 As a check on EWMA (.6) forecast: F4 = xX3 + α(l-a)X₂ + x (1-x)² x₁ + (1-x) ³²³ F₁ > = .6(53,000) +, 24(50,000) +,096 (45,000) +.64(45,000)
Fig: 1