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Q1:Discussion Questions: 1. In the lower levels of the pyramid forecasting system, how would you prevent abdication of the responsibility for forecasting? 2. Can a grocery store capture true demand data? How might a warehouse capture demand data? 3. Some experts have argued it's more important to have low bias (mean error) than to have a low MAD. Why would they argue this way? Problems: 1. Demand for stereo headphones and MP3 players for joggers has caused Nina Industries to grow almost 50 percent over the past year. The number of joggers continues to expand, so Nina expects demand for headsets to also expand, because, as yet no safety laws have been passed to prevent joggers from wearing them. Demand for the stereo units for last year was as follows: Demand Month (Units) January 4,200 February 4,300 March 4,000 April 4,400 May 5,000 June 4,700 Demand July August September October Month (Units) 5,300 4,900 5,400 5,700 November 6,300 December 6,000 a. Using least squares regression analysis, what would you estimate demand to be for each month next year? Using a spreadsheet, follow the general format in Figure 3.3. Compare your results to those obtained by using the forecast spreadsheet function. b. To be reasonably confident of meeting demand, Nina decides to use three standard errors of estimate for safety. How many additional units should be held to meet this level of confidence?See Answer
Q2:2. Historical demand for a product is Demand Months January 12 February 11 March 15 April 12 May June 16 15 a. Using a weighted moving average with weights of 0.60, 0.30, and 0.10, find the July forecast. b. Using a simple three-month moving average, find the July forecast. c. Using single exponential smoothing with Alpha=0.2 and a June forecast = 13, find the July forecast. Make whatever assumptions you wish. d. Using simple linear regression analysis, calculate the regression equation for the preceding demand data. e. Using the regression equation in d, calculate the forecast for July.See Answer
Q3:4. Zeus Computer Chips Inc. used to have major contracts to produce the Centrino-type chips. The market has been declining during the past three years because of the dual-core chips, which it cannot produce, so Zeus has the unpleasant task of forecasting next year. The task is unpleasant because the firm has not been able to find replacement chips for its product lines. Here is demand over the past 12 quarters: 2007 I II III IV 4,800 3,500 4,300 3,000 2008 I Year Sales (in 1,000 units) 3,500 2,700 3,500 II III IV 2,400 2009 I II III IV 8. Talbot Publishing Company's production planning manager has provided the following historical sales data for its leading textbook on forecasting: 3,200 2,100 2,700 1,700 4 5 6 21 18 20 7 17 The firm is considering using a basic exponential smoothing model with Alpha= 0.2 to forecast this item's sales. a. Use the sales average of 20,000 units through year 3 as the forecast for period 4. Prepare forecasts for years 5 through 7 as of the end of year 4. b. Calculate the average error and MAD value for the three forecasts using the actual sales data provided. Estimate the standard deviation of the forecast errors using the calculated MAD. c. Redo the forecasts and MAD calculations, updating the forecasts for years 6 and 7 at the end of years 5 and 6, respectively. What do you observe?See Answer
Q4:12. Five individual products in a product family of the Cumberland Company have identical sales patterns. Each averages 100 units per month, with a standard deviation of 10 units. Assuming normal distributions and independent demands: a. What is the expected yearly sales distribution of each product? b. What is the expected monthly aggregate sales distribution for all products together? c. What is the expected yearly aggregate sales distribution for all products together?See Answer
Q5:13. Using standard deviations for the values obtained in parts a, b, and c of problem 12, compare your results to the results of a Cumberland Company survey of its managers concerning the accuracy of the company's forecasts (shown below). Expected Forecast Error for a Period of: 1 Month 1 Quarter 1 Year Level of Detail Total Volume Family Type in Family Grade in Type SKU *+12%. *NF no forecast. *Stockkeeping unit. 12* 15 15 30 8 10 NF+ NF 8 8 12 NFSee Answer
Q6:14. MacRonald's Restaurant uses a monthly exponential smoothing forecast for demand of each of its products. MacRonald's has four product families: burgers, chicken, hoagies, and pizza. MacRonald's also asks the shift managers to come up with a forecast for each product family. The exponential forecast for each product and the family forecast are given below. Family Burgers Chicken Hoagies Pizza Family Burgers Chicken Hoagies Pizza Product Regular Super Super-Duper Regular Cajun Italian French American Cheese Pepperoni Forecast 1,200 2,700 2,100 1,800 2,700 2,250 1,650 1,350 750 1,200 S/Unit 1.00 1.50 1.80 2.50 2.75 3.50 3.00 3.25 1.75 2.25 S Sales 10,000.00 15,000.00 20,000.00 5,000.00 a. Calculate a roll-up of the individual forecasts and compare it to the product family forecast. b. Roll up the individual product forecast to the top level and compare it to an overall corporate forecast of $65,000. Roll the forecast back down to families and individual forecast (dollars and units).See Answer
Q7:2. Collect input data on arrival times, service times, and any other input data that you feel is relevant. Data should be collected on at least two representative days.See Answer
Q8:3. Collect output data to verify your model; e.g., waiting times, and total time in the system, total customers served, queue lengths, etc.See Answer
Q9:5. Build a simulation model using SIMIO to simulate your system. Capture the key aspects of the system. State all assumptions in your write up (e.g., input distributions). 6. Verify and validate your model 7. Run the model as a terminating simulation. 8. Compare your model's output to the actual output and explain any discrepancies. 9. Determine the number of replications you will need to run in order to obtain your desired accuracy for the terminating model. Demonstrate that you have obtained your desired accuracy.See Answer
Q10:10. Increase the demand by 25% and 50% and describe what happens to the system. What happens if additional resources are added? How much extra capacity will this provide? 11. Suggest at least two alternative configurations that should improve the system and make a statistical comparison between the original system and each of your two alternatives. 12. Analyze and write-up all your results.See Answer
Q11: 'AUM American University Of The Middle East COURSE Project (10%) 2023-2024 Computing in Industrial Engineering IE 332 Semester: Fall 2023 Contents 1. Introduction.... 2. Project Description ......... 3. Learning Outcomes Project Management & Deliverables.. 4. 5. Turnitin 6. APA Style 7. 8. Academic Honesty and Integrity Assurance.. Copyrights... 9. Project and team-based work... 10. Marking Scheme………………….. 11. Student Assessment Rubric 3 3 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 1. Introduction Projects for engineering students give an edge over the race of recruitment to work hard to ensure a good career. In spite of employment practices in recent times, students are progressively taking up projects to pad up their skill set. Engineering projects help students to learn and acquire practical knowledge. Despite of theory concept they acquire, various industries also need to know their capacity to complete projects using their specific initiatives. Thus, we recommend students realize engineering projects in their four years of engineering and try to present as many white papers as possible. Students who give importance to their course projects are expected to learn how to: • Work in teams including multidisciplinary teams. Build a major design experience based on the knowledge and skills acquired in the course work. • Build a major design experience that incorporates appropriate engineering standards and multiple realistic constraints. Apply both analysis and synthesis in the engineering design process, resulting in designs that meet the desired needs. The IE 332 project is intended to demonstrate students' ability to perform basic software skills for a 'real world' industrial engineering case. Students would independently choose an "information technology improvement”, “Industry 4.0", or the "Internet of things” project and perform project planning, layout, database, and simulation designs of this technology improvement. In addition to applying technical knowledge in a “real world” project, this would demonstrate the students' ability to conduct group research, teamwork, and technical data interpretation, engineering standards application, software use, report writing, effective presentation, and project management skills. This project will highlight the key aspects of what you have learned both during class and in the lab. The project contains two parts. Each part will be a continuation of the other. You are required to work in groups of max 3 (no exceptions!) members. 2. Project Description You have begun working for the consulting company "ABC Consulting". Your first assignment is to implement a "smart city" project using the latest technologies related to IT, Industry 4.0, or the Internet of Things. A smart city uses information and communication technologies to increase operational efficiency, share information with the public, and improve both the quality of government/municipality services and citizen welfare. In the project, a new smart city application will replace traditional services/systems. Your project deliverable(s) will show how the smart city application will take shape and influence your city. You will be required to use your software skills at Arena and MS Access. The project involves: 1) Choosing one of the following smart city applications: • Smart factory. • Smart warehouse. Smart government department. • Smart services, like restaurants. • Smart hospital. • Smart airport. 2) Data collection based on your topic. 3) Simulating the system with complete input analysis, model development in Arena, and output analysis with suggestions for improvement. You don't have to create a very complex model. You can model any part of your application. The simulation model must be useful and logical. You will use the simulation report, analyze it, and define problems in the application area (that means you will include an output analysis with suggestions for improvement). 4) Creating an MS Access database for one of the city's departments such as warehouse, police department, fire department, transportation, finance, IT, planning department, etc. Possible ideas for a database include city personnel, services, crimes, or any other relevant data for the smart city application. The database must have at least: • 3 tables • 3 queries • 1 form • 1 report The database can be about anything relevant to your smart city. But please clearly explain the purpose of the database; it must be useful and logical. The tables have to be connected to one another including the entity-relationship diagram. Furthermore, you will create the fields and records in the tables by yourself (that means, you will make them up). The data should be relevant to the smart city you consult. 5) Referring to appropriate engineering standards. Information technology standards include both hardware and software standards. Software and information formatting standards are increasingly important. Standards exist for operating systems, programming languages, communications protocols, and human-computer interaction. For example, the global exchange of electronic mail messages requires standards for addressing, formatting, and transmission. A growing array of standards allows the World Wide Web to operate, including the standards for the basic protocol, the hypertext transfer protocol (HTTP), the standard for the messages (HTML), and a whole series of new standards to describe more general documents (the eXtended Markup Language or XML), links (the XML Linking Language or XLL), and appearance (XML Stylesheet Language or XSL). The following standards will be reviewed and incorporated into the project work: Standard ISO/IEC JTC 1 Information Technology ISO/IEC TR 30109:2015 Website link/guide https://www.iso.org/committee/45020.html https://www.iso.org/standard/53229.html Information technology User interfaces Worldwide availability of personalized computer environments ISO/IEC/IEEE 90003:2018 Software engineering - https://www.iso.org/standard/74348.html Guidelines for the application of ISO 9001:2015 to computer software 6) Students should approach industry (manufacturing or services) to get ideas/help on the project. Students should use the Industrial Directory of the Public Authority for Industry https://www.pai.gov.kw/tr/web/pai/35 to contact specific companies. The students can also be inspired by the Kuwait National Development Plan which sets the nation's long-term development priorities while looking for an appropriate topic/company. Please see http://www.newkuwait.gov.kw/en/ for more details. 3. Learning Outcomes Upon successful completion of this course, students are expected to gain the following: • • Ability to use MS Project for developing project plans (SO (1) - PI (3,7)). Ability to use MS Visio for creating business process flow charts (SO (1) – PI (3,7)). Ability to use MS Access to create a database for business functions (SO (3,4,5) — PI (2,3,5,6)). • Ability to use Arena to perform basic simulations (SO (5,6) - PI (2, 5, 6, 7)). • Ability to design and conduct experiments, as well as to analyze and interpret data ((SO (5) - PI (2,5,6)). Ability to design a system, component, or process to meet desired needs within realistic constraints such as economic, environmental, social, political, ethical, health and safety, manufacturability, and sustainability (SO (3,5,6) – PI (2)).See Answer
Q12:Case 1 The following table shows the quarterly demand of two products produced by ABC Inc. over the past 3 years. 1 2 Quarter 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Product 1 100 500 300 200 110 510 340 200 130 520 340 220 Product 2 800 600 900 550 790 500 820 550 700 530 840 510 Products 1 and 2 need two and three production hours per unit respectively. ABC is trying to forecast production hours needed for the next year (i.e. to forecast quarters 13,14,15,and 16). Split the historical data into a 2-year training set used to build some forecasting models (quarters 1-8) and a 1-year test set (quarters 9-12) to find out which forecasting method is better. a) (In Excel- Worksheet name P1-a). Forecasting Approach 1 (Individual forecasting and merging): Build a seasonality and regression model on the training data of each product individually, then forecast production hours needed for each product individually during the test year. Finally, combine the forecasts of both products and produce MAD of forecasting on the test year for production hours needed. b) (In Excel- Worksheet name P1-b). Forecasting Approach 2 (Data Pooling and Forecasting): Combine the data of both products. Build a single seasonality and regression model on the combined data of the training set, then forecast production hours needed for the test year. Finally, produce MAD of forecasting on the test year for production hours needed. c) (In Excel- Worksheet name P1-c) Which forecasting method is better on the basis of MAD? Intuitively, why do you think this method turned out to be better based on the nature of the forecasting approaches?See Answer
Q13: Case 1 The following table shows the quarterly demand of two products produced by ABC Inc. over the past 3 years. Quarter 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Product 10 50 30 20 11 51 34 20 13 52 34 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Product 80 60 90 55 79 50 82 55 70 53 84 51 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Products 1 and 2 need two and three production hours per unit respectively. ABC is trying to forecast production hours needed for the next year (i.e. to forecast quarters 13,14,15,and 16). Split the historical data into a 2-year training set used to build some forecasting models (quarters 1-8) and a 1-year test set (quarters 9-12) to find out which forecasting method is better. a) (In Excel- Worksheet name P1-a). Forecasting Approach 1 (Individual forecasting and merging): Build a seasonality and regression model on the training data of each product individually, then forecast production hours needed for each product individually during the test year. Finally, combine the forecasts of both products and produce MAD of forecasting on the test year for production hours needed. b) (In Excel- Worksheet name P1-b). Forecasting Approach 2 (Data Pooling and Forecasting): Combine the data of both products. Build a single seasonality and regression model on the combined data of the training set, then forecast production hours needed for the test year. Finally, produce MAD of forecasting on the test year for production hours needed. c) (In Excel- Worksheet name P1-c) Which forecasting method is better on the basis of MAD? Intuitively, why do you think this method turned out to be better based on the nature of the forecasting approaches? Case 2 -The EGAD Bottling Company has recently expanded its bottles spring water operations to include several new flavors. Marketing manager Georgianna Mercer is predicting an upturn in demand based on the new offerings and the increased public awareness of the health benefits of drinking more water. She has prepared aggregate forecast for the next six months, as shown in the following table: Ma Ap Ma Jun Tot Month Ja Fe n b Foreca 10 60 st 0 C r y al 70 90 80 70 470 Other information been provided by the production manager as follow: Production cost Production capacity Subcontracting cost Holding cost Back-ordering cost Beginning inventory $10 per unit 80 units per month $18 per unit $2 per unit per month $5 per month per unit 0 units Develop 2 heuristic aggregate plans (in Excel) for EGAD and compare total costs: a. Chase Strategy. Do not use backordering! b. Use in-house production only. No subcontracting. Use Inventory and Backordering if necessary. Case 3: Memorial Hospital Memorial Hospital is a 265-bed regional health care facility located in the mountains of western North Carolina. The mission of the hospital is to provide quality health care to the people of Ashe County and the six surrounding counties. To accomplish this mission, Memorial Hospital's CEO has outlined three objectives: (1) maximize customer service to increase customer satisfaction, (2) minimize costs to remain competitive, and (3) minimize fluctuations in workforce levels to help stabilize area employment. The hospital's operations are segmented into eight major wards for the purposes of planning and scheduling the nursing staff. These wards are listed in the table below, along with the number of beds, targeted patient-to-nurse ratios, and average patient census for each ward. Ward Capacity Data Ward Number of Beds Target Patients Per Patient Census Nurse Intensive Care 20 2 10 Cardiac 25 4 15 Maternity 30 4 10 Pediatric 40 4 22 Surgery 5 -- -- Post-Op 15 Emergency 10 General 120 3 8 5 8 5 98 Table 1 The overall demand for hospital services remained relatively constant over the past few years even though the population of the seven counties served increased. This stable demand can be attributed to increased competition from other hospitals in the area and the rise in alternative health care delivery systems, such as health maintenance organizations (HMOs). However, demand for Memorial Hospital's services does vary considerably by type of ward and time of year. Table below provides a historical monthly breakdown of the average daily patient census per ward. Average Daily Patient Census Per Month J F M A M J J Ward Intensive Care A S N 13 10 8 7 7 6 11 13 9 10 1 12 Cardiac 18 16 15 13 14 12 13 12 3 15 18 D1420 D 1 Maternity 8 8 12 13 10 8 13 13 4 10 87 1 Pediatric 22 23 24 24 25 21 ང་ 22 1 Surgery 20 18 18 17 16 16 22 Post-Op Emergency 10 8 6 74 04 7 7 6 4 7 8 65 20 8 20 21 21 7 18 20 10 10 7 8 9 5 4 4 3 4 803 04 71922106 General 10 9 10 10 9 110 108 0 98 95 90 88 92 8 Table 2 2 7 4 04 The director of nursing for Memorial Hospital is Darlene Fry. Each fall she confronts one of the most challenging aspects of her job: planning the nurse-staffing levels for the next calendar year. Although the average demand for nurses has remained relatively stable over the past couple of years, the Table 2 (Ward Capacity Data) staffing plan usually changes because of changing work policies, changing pay structures, and temporary nurse availability and cost. With fall quickly approaching, Fry is collecting information to plan next year's staffing levels. The nurses at Memorial Hospital work a regular schedule of four 10-hour days per week. The average regular-time pay across all nursing grades is $12.00 per hour. Overtime may be scheduled when necessary. However, because of the intensity of the demands placed on nurses, only a limited amount of overtime is permitted per week. Nurses may be scheduled for as many as 12 hours per day, for a maximum of 5 days per week. Overtime is compensated at a rate of $18.00 per hour. In periods of extremely high demand, temporary part-time nurses may be hired for a limited period of time. Temporary nurses are paid $15.00 per hour. Memorial Hospital's policy limits the proportion of temporary nurses to 15 percent of the total nursing staff. Finding, hiring, and retaining qualified nurses is an ongoing problem for hospitals. One reason is that various forms of private practice lure many nurses away from hospitals with higher pay and greater flexibility. This situation has caused Memorial to guarantee its full -time staff nurses pay for a minimum of 30 hours per week, regardless of the demand placed on nursing services. In addition, each nurse receives 4 weeks of paid vacation each year. However, vacation scheduling may be somewhat restricted by the projected demand for nurses during particular times of the year. At present, the hospital employs 130 nurses, including 20 surgical nurses. The other 110 nurses are assigned to the remaining seven major areas of the hospital. The personnel department informed Fry that the average cost to the hospital for hiring a new full-time nurse is $400 and for laying off or firing a nurse is $150. Although layoffs are an option, Fry is aware of the hospital's objective of maintaining a level workforce. After looking over the information that she collected, Darlene Fry wants to consider staffing changes in all areas except the surgery ward, which is already correctly staffed. QUESTIONS 1. Explain the alternatives available to Darlene Fry as she develops a nurse staffing plan for Memorial Hospital. How does each alternative plan meet the objective stated by the CEO? 2. Based on the data presented, develop a nurse staffing plan in Excel for Memorial Hospital. Explain your rationale for this plan.See Answer
Q14: Introduction Assignment Instructions 1.1. Provide a carefully description of the risk factors for physical ergonomics, organizational ergonomics, cognitive ergonomics, others (heat, noise, biologicals, etc.) associated with the laundry process. 1.2. Describe the potential health effects for the back, neck, shoulders, arm, forearm, wrist, legs, etc. Provide a rationale for why these body parts are particularly vulnerable. 2. Analysis 2.1. Estimate the layout dimensions of the work area. Describe your assumptions. 2.2. Define the anthropometric measurements that would be required to assess the appropriateness of the current dimensions. Explain why these measurements are necessary and how they will be used in your analysis. 3. Exposure Assessment 3.1. Describe the workflow of the process. Use the diagram provided to illustrate the process. 3.2. Provide a detailed description of the main ergonomic-related issues identified in the process that could affect task productivity. 4. Work Area Redesign 4.1. Describe the recommendation you would implement to reduce the risk of developing musculoskeletal disorders in this work area. You must include suggestions for reducing exposure to the observed risk factors identified in the introduction section. 4.2. Propose a new workflow. Illustrate the new workflow in the diagram. Consider ergonomic principles such as proper lifting techniques, workstation design, and workflow optimization. Written report Analyze the Hotel Laundry process and present a proposal to redesign it. Using the prompts below, write a report that summarizes your assessments, findings, analysis, and conclusions. Illustrate your analysis with drawings. Present your report using the numbering provided above. Oral Presentation Power Point: Duration: 7 minutes Content: Brief overview of the current ergonomic issues based on your key findings classifying the issues by physical, organizational, and cognitive ergonomics. Summary of your redesign proposal explain pre- and post- as well the expected impact of the suggested change. NOTE: REPORT SHOULD BE OF 7 PAGES AND PPT SHOULD BE OF 7 MIN i.e(8-10 slides excluding title page and reference page) include speaker notes as well APA CITATIONSee Answer
Q15: Read the article "Time Tells All" by: George Bishop (a copy is posted on Blackboard) and write a 1 paragraph summary of the key points of the article.See Answer
Q16: 1. Little Brownie Bakers, the Girl Scout Cookie Baker, must deliver 300,000 boxes of cookies per month. The shop produces batches of cookies requiring a setup time of 45 minutes for each production batch. Average standard time for each cookie in a batch is 10 seconds, and there is an average of 600 cookies in a batch. Each box has 22 cookies per box. The bakery workforce for the pressing department consists of two workers per press, two supervisors,and one clerical support staff. There are 8 hours worked per day and an average of 21 days per month at one shift per day. a. Determine how many cookie presses are needed to satisfy production requirements for the month. There are 8 hours worked per day and an average of21 days per month at one shift per day. b. Determine the number of workers for the presses, the number of supervisors and the number of clerical support staff that would be needed.See Answer
Q17: 2. The six flavors of Girl Scout Cookies(TM-Thin Mints, SAM-Samoas, Tre-Trefoils, SS-Savannah Smiles, SM - Smores and TT - Toffee Tastic) that do not contain peanuts are processed through a sequence of five operations (1-mixing dough, 2-baking, 3-liquidtoppings, 4-dry toppings, 5-packaging) at one facility. Not all cookies are processed in all operations. TM, which has weekly quantities of 3250 boxes, is processed through operations 1, 2, 3 and 5 in that order. SAM, which has weekly quantities of 2900 boxes, is processed through operations 1, 2, 3, 3 and 5 in that order. Tre, which has weekly quantities of 1900 boxes, are processed through operations 1, 2, and 5 in that order. SS,which has weekly quantities of 950 boxes, is processed through operations 1, 2, 4, and 5 in that order. SM, which has a weekly quantities of 400, is processed through operations 1, 2,and 5 in that order. Finally, TT, weekly quantities of 250 boxes, is processed through 1, 2,and 5 in that order. (a) Draw the network diagram for this work system. (b) Prepare the From -To table for this work system.See Answer

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