Problem 1

In a CPM network, the critical path has six activities. Their durations are tabulated next.

Activity

BDFKNS

Optimistic (To)

Compute the following:

-

245373

Duration (Days)

Most Likely (Tm)

386305

10

The probability that the project will finish by the end of day 65

The probability that the project will finish on the 62nd day

The probability that the project will finish at least 6 days early

Pessimistic (Tp)

5

13

3835860

15

The probability that the project will finish no more than 4 days late

The completion date with at least a 95% confidence level

- The owner wants a range of most likely finish dates. He wants to know, nine times out of

ten, the range of dates where you could expect the project to feasibly finish. (Note: the

answer will consist of two dates, not one)