Question

Essay/Summary

Read the following case study based on the Applegold Cider Company. You should then apply decision analysis to the problem facing Apple gold. This will involve:

b) using Bayesian analysis to update prior probabilities and find the correct probabilities in the tree;

c) discuss the strengths and limitations of your analysis.

a) Formulating the problem as a decision tree;

Table 1: Predicted changes in profit (in £) for combinations of different immediate purchasing strategies and sales increases.The Sales Manager suggests that it might still be better to wait for the weather forecast in July, and run the risk of the kegs not being available. Whether it is best to do so depends upon how accurate the forecasts are.

4The Sales Manager proposes that the company wait until an accurate long range weather forecast is available for August, since demand depends heavily on the weather, with hot dry months leading to high demand. Such a forecast will be available in July. One problem is that it might be the case that other brewers had bought all of the available kegs by this time and the Operations Manager estimates a probability of 0.7 of getting the kegs if they wait until July.The Sales Manager produces an interim forecast, with no knowledge of the weather,of how good sales are likely to be in August. She estimates that they will be at least 10% higher with probability 0.45, they will increase by a lower amount with probability 0.4, and there will be no increase with probability 0.15.The Data Processing Manager suggests three possible strategies; buying 0, 8000 or16000 kegs immediately. The associated change in profit from these three strategies were estimated, based upon the assumption that with a 10% sales increase 16000extra kegs will be used (if available), and for a lower increase 8000 extra kegs will be used (if available), with an associated profit of £10.50 per keg. These are summarised in Table 1.

Applegold is a major cider producer, producing draught cider for pubs and clubs,as well as bottles and cans, which has recently seen production and the number of outlets selling its products increase significantly.The growth in draught cider has created some problems for the company's managers.In particular, there is concern that when sales reach their peak in August, there might not be enough kegs (steel re-usable cider containers) available to meet demand.Apple gold own about 200000 kegs, but it is felt by some managers that the stocks should be increased.The Operations Manager has proposed that 16000 new kegs be ordered immediately. The Accountant is not convinced. Kegs cost £90 each, so this would lead to an expenditure of £1440000. They would be usable next year, but assuming 5%interest on capital, buying now rather than waiting would cost £72000.

Verified

### Question 45609

Essay/Summary

In our class we talked extensively of how we see poetic language in everyday life and how poetry is used in various genres. using the lecture and sources available can you talk about some contemporary uses of poetry and even cite a few examples ? Plan to write a complete essay in 3-5 paragraphs.

### Question 45608

Essay/Summary

Lyric Poetry contains no clear rhyme scheme ormeter
- True
False

### Question 45607

Essay/Summary

Free Verse/Blank Verse Poetry contains no clear rhyme or meter, although it can use poetic devices

### Question 45605

Essay/Summary

Choose one free verse poem from the poetry foundation and discuss how the poem you choose ( in 2-3 paragraphs) how you can seethe use of poetic devices and provide an analysis of the poem you choose.

### Question 45604

Essay/Summary

In Hamlet the poetic sections (soliloquy sections) constitute a look into Hamlet's emotional scope and path from depression, to anger, questioning, and revenge. Please choose one soliloquy ( you can use the one you used for your assignment) and discuss ( iin 3-5paragraphs) with specific examples how you see your choice fitting in to the larger narrative and how this section reveal emotion and uses poetic devices

### Question 45603

Essay/Summary

Chose one poem from this page of Summerthemed poems:
Then choose two-three examples specific of how your poem connects with the theme of Summer.

### Question 45602

Essay/Summary

The following is an example of what type ofpoetic organization?
All multi-syllabic words are separated by a line |to help you count syllables to determine if thereis a meter
Now is the win ter of our dis con|tent Made gloriļous sum|mer by this sun of York;And all the clouds that lour'd upon our house In the deep boslom of the ocean buried.
Haiku
O free verse
Dactylic qaudmeter
iambic pentameter

### Question 32644

Essay/Summary

According to your major, imagine that you're looking for a job, go and search for 3 ads. write a minimum one-page report about what are the job description and summarizes the required qualifications.

### Question 31206

Essay/Summary

DQ1) Would you say cultural differences between team members cause stress? If so, how?

### Question 30079

Essay/Summary

2) A 250 word descriptive essay of the following Data types