1. Which two ideas from Part 2 (chapter 7-10) were the most interesting to you? Describe these two ideas. 2. Pick a current event (it can be any current event that you choose, it doesn't matter how big or small, or culturally important the event is). How did reading Everything is Obvious influence or change the way that you think about this current event?

Student’s Name Professor’s Name Course Name Due Date Reflection on Everything is Obvious by Duncan Watts The two ideas from Part two of the text Watts that I found interesting are as follows. First, was the idea “that the kinds of predictions that common sense tells us we ought to be able to make are in fact impossible” (Watts 161). By this idea, the author meant that it is impossible to predict the future based on common sense because common sense usually tells its predictors to predict that only one type of future will play out, ignores many other plausible predictions, and focuses more on what outcomes matter most to the predictor though in reality there is no way to anticipate what events will play in the future (Watts 161). To substitute this issue the author suggests building on ‘Uncommon sense’ which is to estimate those probabilities reliably within which certain kinds of events can occur (Watt 161). This, the author argued can be done by predicting the realms which can be predicted, i.e., those realms that confirm to some stable historical pattern which can be done by gathering enough data on past behaviour, by not focusing on a single person's opinion, by focusing more on the opinions of many people, by using many methods at the same time and taking out an average, and by keeping track of the performance of the event over time (Watts 162-174). Further, second, was the idea of “placing less emphasis on anticipating the future, or even multiple futures, and more on reacting to the present” (Watts 186). This idea majorly talks about those events in the complex social systems which can’t be predicted at all as they don’t conform to any former stable historical pattern and talk about the uncertainty of the future which can even cause errors among the best-laid plans (Watts 162-176). Based on this idea the author argued, that though organisations use the strategic flexibility approach, i.e., an approach in which organisations predict varied hypothetical futures and their resultant strategies or solutions that can occur in terms of future events, it still can’t be successful in some cases as future can never be predicted and it is impossible to know what will happen in the future and what importance it will hold for the organisation (Watts 176-186). Thus, to resolve this issue the author argues for an alternative approach which states that organisations should not lay emphasis on planning, or anticipating the future or multiple futures but more on reacting to the present (Watts 186). Additionally, the current event that I pick to reflect on after reading Watts's text is Covid-19 as when Covid-19 started my common-sense opinion was that it is just normal flu which will pass just like any other flu without impacting anyone though, in reality, it caused to be a global pandemic leading to lockdowns all over the world, high rates of deaths, physical hazards and mental trauma among people across the world, and social and economic drain and atrocities across the world. Thus, after reading Watts's text I came to realise that my opinion on the emergence of the pandemic was a prediction based on common sense that was impossible to have come true because I was predicting that only one type of future will play out, that the Covid-19 will not impact anybody as it is just normal flu; ignoring many other plausible predictions, that it could be a global pandemic and cause so many deaths across the world; and focusing more on what outcomes matters most to me, i.e., my life going normally without any global pandemic hampering my life course. Further, I realised after reading Watts's text that Covid-19 as a global pandemic was not an event whose possibilities could be predicted by taking its historical stance as it was a rare form of global health pandemic, rather it was an event marked with future uncertainties to such an extent that it could be resolved by reacting only to the present as stated by Watts. That, governments and nations across the world were hit by this global pandemic that came out of nowhere, and no matter how many possible strategic flexibilities they could have planned to resolve the event, the event had its own life course which could have been only treated by reacting to it in terms of its present. Page Break Works Cited Watts, Duncan J. Everything is Obvious: How Common Sense Fails Us. Crown Publishing Group. 2011.